Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.239342 0.289892 0.351259 0.432146 0.537311 0.671322 8.581357e-01
2025-05-04 0.160278 0.211319 0.280386 0.383162 0.536686 0.765216 1.146930e+00
2025-05-11 0.112402 0.158252 0.225846 0.336994 0.524120 0.844904 1.483426e+00
2025-05-18 0.079909 0.118510 0.179488 0.288460 0.491968 0.888604 1.824173e+00
2025-05-25 0.058581 0.090722 0.144542 0.247935 0.459889 0.925875 2.227938e+00
2025-06-01 0.046566 0.075280 0.126266 0.231819 0.470865 1.072134 3.128839e+00
2025-06-08 0.037969 0.063814 0.112241 0.219803 0.488220 1.262785 4.573046e+00
2025-06-15 0.031871 0.055558 0.102278 0.213429 0.519375 1.540779 7.185927e+00
2025-06-22 0.027125 0.048882 0.093866 0.208046 0.553831 1.894277 1.179609e+01
2025-06-29 0.022690 0.041958 0.083295 0.193802 0.555904 2.153394 1.772182e+01
2025-07-06 0.017677 0.033010 0.066373 0.157377 0.465013 1.895759 1.763459e+01
2025-07-13 0.015502 0.029660 0.061573 0.153150 0.488542 2.283164 3.025242e+01
2025-07-20 0.013856 0.027276 0.058815 0.155043 0.544488 3.051221 6.951132e+01
2025-07-27 0.012603 0.025539 0.057275 0.160560 0.626676 4.349498 2.162333e+02
2025-08-03 0.011331 0.023528 0.054567 0.161416 0.693360 5.929532 7.877169e+02
2025-08-10 0.010005 0.021162 0.050356 0.155320 0.720520 7.369640 3.026347e+03
2025-08-17 0.008817 0.018938 0.046050 0.147217 0.730697 8.828798 1.596006e+04
2025-08-24 0.008055 0.017654 0.044172 0.148164 0.807351 12.476100 1.838640e+06
2025-08-31 0.007395 0.016521 0.042488 0.149361 0.894290 18.097041 NaN
2025-09-07 0.006858 0.015620 0.041314 0.152500 1.010576 28.112553 NaN
2025-09-14 0.006370 0.014771 0.040108 0.155107 1.136180 44.759416 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005802 0.013614 0.037626 0.150202 1.180394 60.775488 NaN
2025-09-28 0.004978 0.011646 0.032044 0.126895 0.979453 46.995320 NaN